Saturday, 20 June 2009

Race Predition: Doom and Gloom

The Mayor's Cup race is this morning, and although I am trying to maintain my positive outlook on it and all that, but it isn't looking very pretty.

The race starts at our marina with a staggered start. We will likely be about the third or fourth boat to start. I can handle that. From the start it goes to Fox Island, a small island 6 miles from the marina. The boats are to go around the island, then come back to Jackson's Point.

According to sailflow, the first leg will be dead downwind. By the time the big boats start, we should be about 3/4 of the way done this leg. Forecast winds are to be very light at our start, building through the race. An advantage for the fast boats.

Second leg is about half a mile of beam reaching if Sailflow is right. According to sailflow the wind should rotate almost 180 deg. right around when we round the island, making it another run back to our marina. If that wind shift hits early or late, it could have a drastic effect on the race. I will have to watch for it.

By this time the big boats should be breathing down our neck.

If its wing on wing all the way back, then the best we can do is hull speed and we will not beat the planing boats. If the wind is late in shifting, or doesn't shift, then we will have some skill involved here. If this were a reaching race I would be much more optimistic since Iris does well on that point of sail.

The forecast is for 10mm of rain. Maybe some fair-weather folks will drop out. Tonight I'm going to loosen up the aft lowers and forestay. I need to be tuned for a day of running, and that means the mast needs to tip forward.

On the upside, SWMBO offered to crew for me. Not sure if that will stand if it rains, but I'm glad she offered. If the weather is miserable, I may encourage her to go swimming at the pool down the road or something.

1 comment:

  1. EscapeVelocity21 June 2009 at 23:21

    Slower boats start first races can get interesting--one of my early races involved the fast boats catching up at a mark rounding. Must've been about fifty boats trying to round at the same time. We took the chute down early because we couldn't keep the pole out of people's shrouds. Not much wind down there in the fiberglass canyon anyway.


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